Question 2a (5 points): describe the details of the last value method

QNT 5160

Guidelines for Individual Case Assignment: Cutting Edge

 

 

Instructions

 

This is an individual assignment and therefore must be completed by the individual student without outside assistance.  In order to complete the assignment, first read the case write-up for the “Cutting Edge” case.  Then answer the questions listed below for each part of the case. 

 

  • Part 1 questions refer to the 2 years leading up to the opening of the new call center. 
  • Part 2 questions refer to the first 13 weeks of operation after opening the call center. 
  • Part 3 questions refer to the first 18 months of operating the call center.

 

Your answers must be entered directly into this Word document below each question.  Insert each answer below each question on this document and use as much space as needed.  Questions 3a and 3b each require the completion of an Excel spreadsheet.  Submit your completed Word document and these two Excel spreadsheets to the Blackboard assignment box before the posted deadline.  You may submit additional Excel spreadsheets if you feel they are necessary to support your answers.

 

 

Grading

 

A total of 100 percentage points is possible for this assignment.  This includes the point values which are assigned to each question (point values are noted next to each question below) plus 10 points which are earned based on following the prescribed assignment format, and the proper writing style and APA format.  The percentage points earned on this assignment will be multiplied by 25 to obtain the assignment grade (e.g., 85% on this paper * 25 = 21.25 points for the case study).

 

 

Part 1 Questions:

 

Question 1a (5 points): Define a problem statement which reflects the challenge facing Mark as he planned for the opening of the new center.

 

(Enter your answer here and in the following sections, but delete this statement first.)

 

Question 1b (5 points): Why was Mark’s initial forecast of call volume so far off?  What could have been the reasons for this?

 

 

 

Question 1c (5 points): What could Mark have done differently to improve his initial forecast?

 

 

 

 

Part 2 Questions:

 

In answering the Part 2 questions, you should download and refer to Student Data File No. 1 which contains the historical data that was used in preparing the forecast results that are reported in Part 2 of the case write-up document. 

 

  • Note: You do not have to prepare any forecasts in answering this question. 
  • Hint: it will be helpful for you to review a time-series plot of the 13 weeks of data contained on Student Data File No. 1.

 

Question 2a (5 points): Describe the details of the Last Value method used by Harry and explain its accuracy (MAD value) in comparison with the accuracy of the other methods.

 

 

 

Question 2b (5 points): Describe the details of the Averaging method used by Harry and explain its accuracy (MAD value) in comparison with the accuracy of the other methods.

 

 

 

Question 2c (5 points): Describe the details of the Moving Average (5 days) method used by Harry and explain its accuracy (MAD value) in comparison with the accuracy of the other methods.

 

 

 

Question 2d (5 points): Describe the details of the Exponential Smoothing (alpha = 0.1) method used by Harry and explain its accuracy (MAD value) in comparison with the accuracy of the other methods.

 

 

 

Question 2e (5 points): Describe the details of the Exponential Smoothing (alpha = 0.5) method used by Harry and explain its accuracy (MAD value) in comparison with the accuracy of the other methods.

 

 

 

 

 

Part 3 Questions:

 

In answering the Part 3 questions, you should download and refer to Student Data File No. 2 which contains the historical data that you will need to answer the questions.

 

Question 3a (10 points):

 

Prepare a forecast of call volume for July 2015 by applying Exponential Smoothing (with alpha = 0.5) to the prior 18 months of data.  Use the appropriate Excel template from the Hillier text to prepare your forecast and assume that initial call volume is 24,000.  Show your forecast below and attach the completed Excel template.

 

Call Volume Forecast for July 2015 (using the Exponential Smoothing method with an .5): _________________

 

 

Question 3b (10 points): 

 

Apply Linear Regression to predict call volume from head count using the appropriate Excel template.  Show your forecast below and attach the completed Excel template.

 

Call Volume Forecast for July 2015 (Causal Forecasting based on head count): _________________

 

 

Question 3c (10 points):

 

Calculate the Mean absolute deviation value of the Exponential Smoothing model (Question 3a) and the Average Estimation Error of the Linear Regression model (Question 3b).  Explain the difference between these two values.

 

Mean absolute deviation of Exponential Smoothing model, with .5 is: ______________________

 

Average Estimation Error for Causal Forecasting model based on headcount is: __________________

 

What is your explanation of the difference in these two values:

 

 

 

Question 3d (20 points):

 

Considering your answers to Questions 3a, 3b and 3c (above) and all the factors that have been described above, prepare your best forecast for July 2015.  Show your forecast value below and explain and justify how you came up with this forecast.

 

Call Volume Forecast for July 2015 based on my forecast is: _________________

 

 

Explanation and Justification of Your selected forecasting method is (Explain this in detail, why you selected the forecasting method that you did for this case study, and why did you select this method over the other possible methods?):

Calculate the price of your order

550 words
We'll send you the first draft for approval by September 11, 2018 at 10:52 AM
Total price:
$26
The price is based on these factors:
Academic level
Number of pages
Urgency
Basic features
  • Free title page and bibliography
  • Unlimited revisions
  • Plagiarism-free guarantee
  • Money-back guarantee
  • 24/7 support
On-demand options
  • Writer’s samples
  • Part-by-part delivery
  • Overnight delivery
  • Copies of used sources
  • Expert Proofreading
Paper format
  • 275 words per page
  • 12 pt Arial/Times New Roman
  • Double line spacing
  • Any citation style (APA, MLA, Chicago/Turabian, Harvard)

Our guarantees

Delivering a high-quality product at a reasonable price is not enough anymore.
That’s why we have developed 5 beneficial guarantees that will make your experience with our service enjoyable, easy, and safe.

Money-back guarantee

You have to be 100% sure of the quality of your product to give a money-back guarantee. This describes us perfectly. Make sure that this guarantee is totally transparent.

Read more

Zero-plagiarism guarantee

Each paper is composed from scratch, according to your instructions. It is then checked by our plagiarism-detection software. There is no gap where plagiarism could squeeze in.

Read more

Free-revision policy

Thanks to our free revisions, there is no way for you to be unsatisfied. We will work on your paper until you are completely happy with the result.

Read more

Privacy policy

Your email is safe, as we store it according to international data protection rules. Your bank details are secure, as we use only reliable payment systems.

Read more

Fair-cooperation guarantee

By sending us your money, you buy the service we provide. Check out our terms and conditions if you prefer business talks to be laid out in official language.

Read more
Open chat
Hello, welcome to our site. Kindly send us a message and we will be in contact with you right away. "We are simply the best"